Is this the end
of Bitcoin's bull cycle? Fundamental analysis of market capitalization

Are we experiencing a new bearish phase in the crypto market?

      Renowned on-chain analyst and CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, has set off alarm bells by stating that Bitcoin's bull cycle may have ended. His claim is not random: it is backed by key metrics that reveal the actual behavior of capital within the blockchain.

📉 What is realized capitalization and why does it matter?

Unlike market cap, which is calculated by multiplying the current price of BTC by the total number of coins in circulation, realized cap estimates how much money has actually entered the Bitcoin ecosystem.

This metric is calculated by adding the value of each BTC according to its last movement on the chain. For example:

• If you purchase 1 BTC at $80,000 and transfer it to your wallet, that value is recorded as "real" capital.

• If you then sell it, the BTC "leaves" your wallet and that action is recorded as a sale.

In summary, each entry or exit represents a real market action, not just a price change.

📊 Key difference: Realized capitalization vs. market capitalization

Many people confuse these two terms, but they are distinct concepts:

📌 Key fact: Even a small purchase can trigger a surge in market capitalization if there is little selling pressure. But if there are many sellers, even a large purchase will not move the price.

🚨 Bearish signals: What is happening now?

According to Ju, the market is receiving capital, but prices are not rising proportionally. This indicates the following:

• There is high selling pressure, which is holding back price increases.

• The market could be entering a bearish phase.

A recent chart shows areas in red (bearish phases) beginning to appear at the end of the cycle, even though market capitalization remains high. This suggests that the price of BTC has stagnated despite the steady flow of money.

🕒 How long can this phase last?

Historically, transitions from bear to bull markets can take up to six months or longer, which means that:

✅ A short-term rebound is not very likely.
🔄 We could be entering a prolonged consolidation or correction phase.

🌍 External factors that intensify the outlook

In addition to on-chain behavior, geopolitical tensions are impacting the market:

• President Donald Trump's announcements about reciprocal tariffs on China and the European Union created uncertainty.

• As a result, 90 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies posted losses.

• BTC fell to $82,000, 25% below its all-time high of $109,110.

💡 Final thought: What now?

Although the current outlook may seem worrying, bearish phases are also times of opportunity for informed investors. Analyzing metrics such as realized capitalization helps to understand what is really happening "under the hood" of the crypto market.

🔐 "When everyone is afraid, wise people make their move." — This may be the time to observe, learn, and prepare for what is to come.